Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
1.0
352
37,337
U.S. stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Friday. The
Nifty
1.0
111
11,278
major averages slid firmly into negative territory after ending the previous session
Mid Cap
0.9
149
15,913
The Dow Jones declined by 0.3% to 25,451 and the Nasdaq was down by
mixed.
Small Cap
0.9
144
16,450
1.5% at 7,737.
Bankex
1.0
317
30,743
U.K. shares rose on Friday and remained on track to end the week at six-week highs
as earnings optimism and easing of U.S.-EU trade tensions helped support
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
underlying sentiment ahead of U.S. second-quarter GDP data due tonight. The
benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.5% to 7,701.
Dow Jones
(0.3)
(76)
25,451
Nasdaq
(1.5)
(115)
7,737
On domestic front, Indian shares hit fresh record highs on Friday, with encouraging
FTSE
0.5
38
7,701
first-quarter earnings and positive cues from Asian and European markets helping
underpin investor sentiment. The BSE Sensex soared up by 352 points to 37,337.
Nikkei
0.6
126
22,713
Hang Seng
0.1
23
28,804
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
(0.3)
(9)
2,874
CBDT tells I-T dept to file all petitions before NCLT on shell firms by Aug
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,669
910
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
984
879
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
152
106
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
3,554
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
NSE
33,479
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
684
867
26.8
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
616
720
17.0
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
296
410
38.5
FII
(624)
(2,666)
-7,505
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
916
1,007
9.9
*MFs
(199)
5,512
74,115
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
450
589
30.8
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
IL&FSTRANS
43
17.5
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
INOXWIND
97
11.7
Jul 30, 2018
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
-
-
TATASTEELPP
111
10.0
Jul 30, 2018
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.60)
MOTILALOFS
903
7.6
Jul 31, 2018
US
Consumer Confidence
126.40
126.00
GATI
98
7.6
Jul 31, 2018
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
(15.00)
Jul 31, 2018
China
PMI Manufacturing
51.50
51.30
More Events on Pg7
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
CHOLAFIN
1463
-4.9
VAKRANGEE
47
-4.4
RENUKA
13
-4.3
BALKRISIND
1189
-3.1
WELCORP
123
-2.8
As on July 27, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
News Analysis
CBDT tells I-T dept to file all petitions before NCLT on shell firms
by Aug
The CBDT has directed the Income Tax Department to ensure filing all its petitions
before the NCLT by next month to recover due taxes worth crores of rupees from a
number of de-registered shell or dummy companies.
The policy-making body of the tax department has issued the directive as part of
the action plan unveiled recently.
A large number of companies have been struck off from the records of the ROC
(registrar of companies) during last year. In several cases of such companies,
petitions for restoration of registration are required to be filed before the NCLT so
as to be able to pursue recovery of demands raised in their cases. Assessing
officers must identify all such cases at the earliest and ensure filing of petitions by
August 31, 2018.
The government, last year, had struck off over 226,000 firms for engaging in
illegal activities and as part of Modi government's drive against black money.
Similar action against about 225,000 more such firms, also called shell or dummy
companies, is expected in the coming days.
The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), in May, had directed the tax
department to form a special team of officers to complete the task of filing these
petitions in various NCLT (national company law tribunal) benches across the
country.
Economic and Political News
Govt to unveil new policy to make India defense manufacturing hub in 10 yrs
Delhi, Mumbai and other major cities to soon get their own missile shields
Centre plans to auction 12 mineral blocks in August, September
Corporate News
Reliance Industries plans to raise $2.7 bn to refinance high-cost debt
Five years on, NHAI likely to shut its electronic-tolling subsidiary
Traders body CAIT to launch naitionwide stir against Flipkart-Walmart deal
Piramal aims to work with property developers, revive distressed projects
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Axis Bank Ltd - July 30, 2018
Particulars ( ` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
624
1,305
(52.2)
(2,188)
Idea Cellular Ltd - July 30, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
5,967
8,166
(26.9)
6,137
(2.8)
EBIDTA
844
1,875
(54.9)
1,447
(41.7)
%
14.2
22.9
23.5
PAT
(1,528)
(814)
(962)
Shree Cemnet Ltd - July 30, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
3,002
2,536
18.3
2,811
6.7
EBIDTA
654
679
(3.7)
629
3.9
%
21.8
26.8
22.3
PAT
352
440
(20.0)
399
(11.8)
Tech Mahindra Ltd - July 30, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
8,202
7,336
11.8
8,054
1.8
EBIDTA
1,314
934
40.6
1,411
(6.8)
%
16.1
12.7
17.6
PAT
896
791
13.2
1,230
(27.2)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,579
684
867
26.8
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,309
616
720
17.0
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,88,655
293
416
41.8
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,530
450
589
30.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,737
305
475
56.0
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,500
533
851
59.6
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,81,401
9,315
10,820
16.2
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,912
355
591
66.4
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,591
714
800
12.1
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
31,435
143
218
52.7
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,490
296
410
38.5
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,670
735
1,016
38.2
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,73,800
2,203
2,350
6.7
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,13,254
909
1,050
15.3
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,908
948
1,230
29.7
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
11,762
916
1,007
9.9
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
31,988
1,414
1,764
25.1
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,942
203
350
72.6
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,344.
915
1,020
11.9
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
34,158
591
780
31.9
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
85,219
369
435
17.6
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
24,010
570
670
16.1
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,568
268
360
34.2
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,570
1,722
2,178
26.5
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,609
2,030
2,500
23.2
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,513
205
333
62.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
35,338
177
210
18.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Friday
July 27, 2018
Bank of Baroda, IOB, HCL Tech, Reliance Industries, Heritage Foods, Alembic Pharma
Saturday
July 28, 2018
Persistent, Godawari Ispat, NTPC
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 27, 2018
5:15 PMEuro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
-
Jul 30, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul F
(0.60)
Jul 31, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
126.40
126.00
1:25 PMGermany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jul
(15.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
51.50
51.30
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
0.50
Aug 01, 2018
1:25 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul F
57.30
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
54.40
54.30
11:30 PMUS
FOMC rate decision
%
Aug 1
2.00
2.00
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.00
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Aug 1
6.25
6.50
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Aug 1
4.00
4.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
79,405
11.9
(7.1)
21.8
Russia
Micex
4,339
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,167
5.7
5.5
12.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,882
2.1
(7.8)
(11.1)
South Africa
Top 40
50,704
3.8
1.0
5.4
Mexico
Mexbol
49,438
5.4
2.4
(4.2)
Indonesia
LQ45
939
5.1
(7.4)
(3.2)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,766
5.4
(6.8)
0.6
Thailand
SET 50
1,126
5.7
(4.3)
12.6
USA
Dow Jones
25,527
5.3
6.0
17.1
UK
FTSE
7,663
1.7
3.8
4.0
Japan
Nikkei
22,587
1.1
2.3
12.8
Germany
DAX
12,809
4.3
3.0
5.9
France
CAC
5,481
3.1
0.2
7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 27 July, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-07-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
July 30, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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